Iranian ICBM Claim Falls Short Of The Mark.

Claims that Iran is preparing to test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) are based on incorrect analysis of a satellite image showing the new facility at the Khomeini Space Centre in Semnan province.

Iranian ICBM Claim Falls Short Of The Mark.

The claim was first made on 21 January by Israel's Channel 2 on the basis of an undated EROS-B satellite image of the new facility that was probably taken sometime in 2014.

It was then picked up by several other outlets. Channel 2 said the image showed a 27 m missile that was capable of hitting targets "far beyond Europe".

The facility has been under construction for several years and is presumed to be designed for the Simorgh satellite launch vehicle (SLV) that Iran needs to lift heavier payloads into orbit. The Iran Space Agency announced in October 2014 that it planned to put three satellites into orbit using the Simorgh in the Persian year 1394, which starts on 21 March.

The declassified version of the US Department of Defense's annual report on Iran's military power, released in January 2014, noted that "Iran has publicly stated it may launch a space launch vehicle by 2015 that could be capable of intercontinental ballistic missile ranges if configured as a ballistic missile".

While the Simorgh is theoretically capable of ICBM ranges, it cannot deliver an effective warhead over such distances. Iranian media have reported that it will be able to lift a payload of just 100 kg into orbit.

The Channel 2 EROS-B satellite image showed the moveable gantry that would be used to assemble the stages of a Simorgh and the umbilical tower that would service it prior to launch, but no rocket can be seen.

While it would be difficult to see a SLV being put together inside the gantry, this process is clearly not taking place in the EROS-B image as the gantry is not located over the exhaust vent where the rocket would need to be assembled. It would be impossible for the gantry to be moved over the exhaust vent after an SLV had been assembled inside it due to the location of the umbilical tower.

Airbus Defence and Space satellite imagery acquired also shows that the construction of the new facility is far from complete. Most significantly, the launch stand that would be needed to support the SLV in position over the entrance to the flame trench has yet to be installed.

Iran consequently will not be able to attempt to put a satellite into orbit using a Simorgh rocket for several months.

While Iranian officials have stated that they do not need missiles with a longer range than the ones that are already in service, there have been indications that the Islamic Republic has continued to work on long-range rockets after it announced that the 2,000 km-range solid-fuel Sejil had entered service in 2009.

Satellite imagery previously published by a surge of activity at the Bid Ganeh missile development facility from 2009 until it was largely destroyed by an explosion on 12 November 2011.

More satellite imagery showing that Iran has invested significant resources into building a new launch facility near the city of Shahrud that could be used to test longer-range, solid-fuel missiles.